Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 191.430013 228.704003 273.628292 332.486223 408.657864 505.457157 6.403437e+02
2025-08-31 141.582364 183.309947 239.331944 322.303265 446.183169 631.586765 9.456340e+02
2025-09-07 123.209877 169.779345 237.894794 349.632265 538.849800 869.130944 1.552195e+03
2025-09-14 105.644921 152.169218 224.576953 352.854947 592.747939 1068.855263 2.248229e+03
2025-09-21 94.424982 141.257764 218.181461 364.178586 663.629279 1337.606292 3.358341e+03
2025-09-28 83.737523 128.990000 206.521121 362.047126 706.508291 1571.652524 4.676023e+03
2025-10-05 79.717151 126.947370 211.889903 393.779858 836.221699 2115.363633 8.019207e+03
2025-10-12 75.471601 123.691386 214.178191 419.651491 965.088911 2776.578946 1.379723e+04
2025-10-19 71.071751 119.400406 213.511330 438.691340 1086.575849 3549.367838 2.381883e+04
2025-10-26 66.526235 114.136555 209.836078 449.535123 1191.136732 4396.059430 4.092024e+04
2025-11-02 61.931620 108.140587 203.546218 452.098314 1272.066218 5263.939516 6.948779e+04
2025-11-09 56.943555 100.750525 193.043706 440.835673 1300.419638 5913.040424 1.081749e+05
2025-11-16 52.284409 93.705050 182.719414 428.966507 1327.845388 6673.135127 1.811534e+05
2025-11-23 48.145078 87.293597 172.952672 416.514186 1349.017174 7477.948126 3.178936e+05
2025-11-30 47.383228 87.865423 179.610017 455.092757 1617.795908 11118.894770 1.761225e+06
2025-12-07 44.846441 84.312145 175.711766 459.717860 1736.600720 13881.990603 9.281353e+06
2025-12-14 43.085270 82.258979 175.228649 475.675739 1930.890857 18690.839090 6.434434e+08
2025-12-21 40.656215 78.447668 169.666580 472.678137 2021.034068 22676.248678 NaN
2025-12-28 40.322426 79.369456 176.689877 517.573808 2455.249892 38041.123803 NaN
2026-01-04 39.595939 79.287632 181.008700 554.457183 2896.663654 62986.866366 NaN
2026-01-11 38.543443 78.308103 182.665576 581.755979 3316.764239 102075.874771 NaN
2026-01-18 37.196467 76.469608 181.563520 597.360778 3672.547205 158542.276292 NaN
2026-01-25 35.622646 73.917347 177.981961 601.055344 3932.494494 232009.317568 NaN